Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

Abstraction: Evidence-based methods that make ordinary people expert forecasters

Key points:

• Philip Tetlock's 2005 landmark study showed even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance, but some experts have genuine foresight
• The Good Judgment Project enrolled tens of thousands of ordinary people to forecast global events; top performers ("superforecasters") beat intelligence analysts with classified access
• Good forecasting methods: gathering evidence from diverse sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, admitting error, and updating
• No powerful computers or arcane methods required — the approach is teachable
• Covers successes (Osama bin Laden raid prediction) and failures (Bay of Pigs) and interviews with David Petraeus and Robert Rubin
• Described by WSJ as "the most important book on decision making since Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow"

Connections: Philip Tetlock · Forecasting · Probabilistic Thinking · Calibration

Source: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718