Make Information Diffusion Explainable: LLM-based Causal Framework for Diffusion Prediction

Information diffusion prediction, which aims to forecast future infected users during the information spreading process on social platforms, is a challenging and critical task for public opinion analysis. With the development of social platforms, mass communication has become increasingly widespread. However, most existing methods based on GNNs and sequence models mainly focus on structural and temporal patterns in social networks, suffering from spurious diffusion connections and insufficient information for the diffusion analysis. We leverage strong reasoning capability of LLMs and develop a LL**M**-based causal framework for d**i**ffusion inf**l**uence **d**erivation (MILD). Comprehensively integrating four key factors of social diffusion, i.e., connections, active timelines, user profiles, and comments, MILD causally infers authentic diffusion links to construct a diffusion influence graph $G_I$. To validate the quality and reliability of our constructed graph $G_I$, we proposed a newly designed set of evaluation metrics w.r.t. diffusion prediction. We show MILD provides a reliable information diffusion structure that 12% absolutely better than the social network structure and achieves the state-of-the-art performance on diffusion prediction. MILD is expected to contribute to high-quality, more explainable, and more trustworthy public opinion analysis.