P-Law: Predicting Quantitative Scaling Law with Entropy Guidance in Large Recommendation Models

With the growing size of data and models in Large Recommendation Models, the time required for debugging has become increasingly prohibitive, underscoring the urgent need for effective guidance in parameter configuration. The Scaling Law (SL) offers analogous guidance in the Sequential Language domain, having achieved significant success by predicting model loss when scaling model size. However, the existing guidance from SL for Sequential Recommendation (SR) remains qualitative, which is because quantitative analysis of SL on SR encounters challenges with quality measurement on redundant sequences along with loss-performance discrepancy. In response, we introduce the Performance Law (P-Law) for SR models, which predicts model performance across various settings, intending to provide a quantitative framework for guiding the parameter optimization of future models. Initially, Performance Law utilizes Real Entropy to measure data quality, aiming to remove the low-quality influence of low-entropy redundant sequences. Subsequently, Performance Law investigates a fitting decay term, which facilitated the prediction of the major loss-performance discrepancy phenomena of overfitting, ultimately achieving quantitative performance prediction. Extensive experiment on various datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of Performance Law by displaying exceptional quantitative prediction ability against the original and modified qualitative SL. Additional application experiments on optimal parameter prediction and model expansion potential prediction also demonstrated the broad applicability of the Performance Law. Our code is available at https://github.com/USTC-StarTeam/P-Law.